The University of Westminster and FFT Education Datalab brought together policymakers, academics and key stakeholders from across the UK to explore new data and analysis on the "Forgotten Third" of 16-year-olds who do not achieve a grade four or above in English and Maths GCSE. The event considered policy implications from the data and future analysis needed to help young people in England at risk of marginalisation.
On 6 January, senior academics, policymakers and practitioners gathered at Westminster’s Fyvie Hall to explore new research into the experiences of England’s Forgotten Third of young people. The Nuffield Foundation-funded research was carried out by the University of Westminster and FFT Education Datalab, who are in the Administrative Data Research (ADR) England Research Community Catalyst: Youth Transitions consortium. The event focused on the experiences of disadvantaged young people at risk of marginalisation and how administrative data analysis can inform policy to improve lives.
The event considered findings from studies of administrative data, such as the National Pupil Database (NPD) and Longitudinal Education Outcomes (LEO), to understand post-16 experiences and outcomes. The data identifies concerning patterns of fractured post-16 learning pathways, high levels of drop-out, inactivity and unemployment among young people.
The event began with a presentation from Professor Peter Urwin, Professor of Applied Economics and Director of the Centre for Employment Research at Westminster, who focused on the post-16 experiences of The Forgotten Third. Professor Urwin used these findings to paint a picture of the negative post-Covid experiences of lower attaining young people.
In the second presentation, Dave Thomson, Chief Statistician at FFT Education Datalab, analysed the impact of policy changes following the 2011 Wolf Review, which had a disproportionately negative effect on disadvantaged and lower-attaining pupils. Thomson and Urwin then considered lessons that can be learnt from this review and other potential policy interventions, to ensure policymakers can avoid unintended consequences from previous policies that failed to improve outcomes for the lowest attaining young people.
The event concluded with a panel discussion chaired by Professor Urwin to explore possible policy responses to the research. He was joined by Professor Andy Dickerson from the University of Sheffield, Dr Emily Tanner from the Nuffield Foundation and Catherine Sezen from the Association of Colleges. As part of this discussion, panellists and attendees set out ways to tackle remaining evidence gaps and help support young people.
About the research, panellist Dr Emily Tanner, Programme Head for Post-14 Education and Skills at the Nuffield Foundation, said: “The Nuffield Foundation supported this research because it is deeply concerning that a sizeable group of young people struggle in their journey towards employment as a result of not passing GCSE thresholds. We know from the Skills Imperative 2035 labour market projections that the shifting labour market is offering new opportunities but that access to these will be limited unless we find more effective ways to support all young people to develop skills needed by employers. The event brought together leading thinkers and changemakers to hear more about the research and to reflect on the implications. At the Nuffield Foundation, we’ll be building on this through further engagement over future months.”
Panellist Catherine Sezen, Director of Education Policy at the Association of Colleges, said about the event: “It was a pleasure to take part in the University of Westminster’s Forgotten Third event. This research project shines a light on the learning experiences and post education trajectories of some of the most vulnerable young people within our society who so often are not the prime focus of either research or policy. I came away thinking about the importance of school to college transitions at 16 and how the work of the current Curriculum and Assessment review could support this through more options for young people in Key Stage 4 to spend time at college to enhance their understanding of progression options.”
Professor Peter Urwin commented: “Our Nuffield-funded study recommends providing lower attaining young people with some form of ‘employment-orientation’ to engage those disillusioned with education, ideally introduced as a school-college partnership earlier in their education journey. This narrowing of focus early in school careers needs to be accompanied by a reversal of the decline in support for life-long learning and engagement with employers in hospitality, retail, construction and social care that provide entry-level jobs to many of the lowest attaining. This will improve prospects for those who have been forgotten. Whilst levelling up and social justice are compelling arguments in themselves, a growing recognition of the importance of these young people for UK productivity provides new opportunities for creative policy that takes advantage of shared challenges.”
This event directly contributed to the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) 4: Quality Education and 17: Partnerships for the Goals. Since 2019, the University of Westminster has used the SDGs holistically to frame strategic decisions to help students and colleagues fulfil their potential and contribute to a more sustainable, equitable and healthier society.
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